At least Arsène Wenger's fatalism was astute. On the eve of the draw for the last 16 of the Champions League, the Arsenal manager spoke with gloomy prescience. He knew his team would again be taking on Barcelona. So it has proved, but the outcome was no sort of statistical freak. The club's chance of meeting Barça was a modest one in four.
In any case, Arsenal would scarcely have been elated if they had been facing Real Madrid, who are likely to be potent under José Mourinho's management. Engaging with Bayern Munich, last year's finalists, would not be without its concerns and only an encounter with Schalke might have mollified the manager.
It is one of Arsenal's problems that, in public utterances, they are far too easy on themselves. Wenger, in his private moments, will understand perfectly that it was perverse of his side to be runners-up in their group to Shakhtar Donetsk, the Ukrainian team they beat 5-1 at the Emirates. The English club that could not get themselves among the seeds have suffered the most severe consequences. That is logical, even if Arsenal might have got off with a far lighter punishment.
Barcelona, the latest in the very long list of teams to be called the best there has ever been, will probably look forward to facing a side who play in their manner, but to less effect. Pep Guardiola's line-up may be even more assured after their successes. He is on course for a third consecutive La Liga title since becoming manager in 2008. If Guardiola has more experience then his team is developing, too, and there was a landmark display in the recent 5-0 harrying of Real Madrid in which the new signing David Villa scored twice.
The Champions League matches themselves ought to be a pleasure and Arsenal, on their own pitch, met fire with fire last season, coming back from 2-0 down to draw with Guardiola's line-up. The second leg, regrettably, is rather better remembered for the four goals that Lionel Messi notched after Nicklas Bendtner had put the visitors ahead. Hardly anyone will suppose that a radically different outcome awaits us in the spring. At the beginning of this month, though, Wenger had been sanguine over his prospects in a rematch. "It depends whether you will have your best players and a good level of confidence," he said.
The remark seems to carry even more weight now. Arsenal were at their meekest and worst last Monday, when they showed no intention even of making a nuisance of themselves in the 1-0 defeat by Manchester United at Old Trafford. Wenger was so deflated that he could not be his usual creative self when minting excuses and made do with blaming the pitch, as if he were just a hack manager.
It is a fact that Arsenal have not been reaching the heights expected of them, as five defeats in the Premier League confirm. There is, however, no reason at all for despair when standards are generally patchy. Wenger's side need merely to beat Stoke at the Emirates tomorrow in order to lead the Premier League, even if Manchester United would lag only because they had played two matches fewer.
Arsenal should be stirred by the thought of taking on Barcelona since they could be in better shape by the spring. The games are so far away that it is reasonable, for instance, to toy with the thought of a fit Thomas Vermaelen being resident in the back four by then. The achilles injury has refused to clear and he has not turned out for the club since late August, but the centre-half has a couple of months to regain fitness for the knockout phase.
Whatever happens to Arsenal on the domestic front in the next few weeks, the Barcelona matches must be a target. The January transfer market normally has shabby goods on sale and, in any case, the best footballers are likely to be ineligible, but it is up to Wenger to realise the potential of men already at his disposal.
It has greatly hindered Arsenal that Cesc Fábregas has not started a match since 23 November. An entirely fit captain, with his intelligence, technique and increasing impact as scorer, would reduce the gap with Barcelona. A full recovery of form by Robin van Persie after his ankle injury might also give this side more scope.
By the same token, Andrey Arshavin has to be made to accept that cameos are not tolerated from men in the starting line-up. There is, too, a goalkeeping issue to be settled now that Wenger has got to the stage where Manuel Almunia, Lukasz Fabianski and Wojciech Szczesny have all appeared in the league. Such flux is a hindrance when defences need rapport.
Wenger does seem to have a number of matters under review. Denílson, for instance, is no longer sure of selection and talk had therefore grown of his being sold. There have always been doubts as to whether the Brazilian made a significant contribution as a defensive midfielder and the manager preferred to leave him on the bench at Old Trafford so the teenager Jack Wilshere could be paired with Alex Song.
This was always bound to be a key season for Wenger. The chance for his team to come back to the fore was obvious. It is vital for Arsenal that the potential should be realised, particularly if they are to emerge from the Barcelona matches with their self-respect intact.
Source: Kevin McCarra, The Guardian on 17 Dec 10
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