The vultures are beginning to circle over the stumbling, disorganised remnants of Premier League participation in Europe's major club competition, waiting for the moment when life can be pronounced extinct and the bones of a once thriving enterprise can be picked clean, probably prior to being danced over.
In case you haven't heard, should Arsenal and Chelsea fail to overcome their first-leg deficits against Italian opponents when the Champions League resumes next month, English football will not have a side in the last eight for the first time since its formation 1996. Sixteen years is a long time, especially when English clubs have reached the final on no fewer than eight occasions in that period, and even if the actual success rate (three European Cups) was slightly disappointing the rest of Europe seems totally delighted now that the Premier League is in danger of losing its superior smirk.
Never mind that Chelsea and Arsenal still have microscopically small chances of making progress. The rest of Europe has just seen Chelsea and Arsenal in action, and judgment need not wait until elimination becomes a mathematical certainty. By Champions League standards, indeed by the standards of previous English attempts on Europe's summit, these are two poor sides. One can only imagine a certain amount of confusion exists in continental Europe as to how Chelsea and Arsenal ended up as the last two English representatives. If the last two are that bad, does it follow that Manchester City and Manchester United are even worse?
Not necessarily. City in particular were both inexperienced and unlucky enough to find themselves in a highly competitive group, not to mention handicapped by recalcitrant substitutes. But City were never going to win the Champions League this year, even Roberto Mancini would tell you that. They never had the same amount of wind in their sails that Tottenham Hotspur had last season, and though they would have liked to make it out of their qualification group, they would inevitably have found the going tough in the latter stages at a time when all their concentration needs to be on their bid to secure a first domestic title in 44 years.
A fact much harder to face is that United were never going to win the Champions League this year either. Reaching two of the last three finals counts for nothing when you have been so thoroughly outplayed by the same team in each, and though all at Old Trafford would strenuously deny it, the possibility exists that confidence, perhaps at some subconscious level, was irreparably damaged by the two crushing Barcelona defeats. It is hard to think of other reasons why a team of United's experience and pedigree should come up short against the likes of Basel and Benfica, and a number of supporters are consoling themselves with the thought that as long as Barcelona are still at large there is little point in fighting all the way to the final anyway. That is an understandable reaction, though a somewhat flattering one. Barcelona are far from the only team in Europe who now look quite uncatchable to English sides. Real Madrid, Milan and Bayern Munich, if not a few others, all look capable of beating United at the moment, and by extension anyone else from the Premier League.
So English football, or at least the product produced by mostly foreign players and managers from the English Premier League, is not as strong as it used to be. The evidence is clear. We appear to be a footballing nation in decline, except that one year may not be representative of the overall situation. There was an English team in the final last season after all, and two more reached the last eight. The question now is how strong Premier League teams are going to be in the Champions League next year. Maybe Chelsea or Arsenal or even both will miss out, and on recent evidence that may be no bad thing. But who will replace them? Spurs are in prime position, though it is difficult to say who will be managing Spurs next season.
It will be a pity, from a club point of view, should Harry Redknapp accept the England position, because as Sir Alex Ferguson says, he has put together a very attractive team at White Hart Lane. Without the England distraction Spurs would ordinarily have been looking forward to using the experience gained last season and having a real go at the Champions League, a prospect that seems infinitely preferable to having Redknapp attempt to persuade Paul Scholes out of retirement for a World Cup qualifier in Moldova. It is up to Redknapp to decide what is the grander destiny, but anyone neutral in the matter would not take long to conclude that Spurs have a far greater capacity for attacking, exciting football than England, and there is no guarantee that the next manager will be able to maintain the club's momentum.
In terms of renewing the English challenge in Europe then, there is already a question mark over Spurs. There is a question over Liverpool too, because they may not be able to qualify. There is some doubt over whether Liverpool would cause many problems for the big names of Europe when they keep ceding points to the likes of Fulham, Norwich City and Swansea City, though the recent elimination of the two Manchester clubs from the two domestic cups gave a better indication of what they are capable of when the occasion arises. Liverpool have always shown great stickability in Europe – their 2005 triumph was not just a miracle in Istanbul, they were written off at almost every stage preceding the final – and few English clubs have ever proved more adept at the art of winning over two legs. Yet unless their league form improves they will have to wait another year, and anything can happen in that time period.
The only other breakthrough contenders, unless Martin O'Neill is about to whisk Sunderland all the way into the top four, are Newcastle United. Stranger things have happened, though not many, and with due respect to Alan Pardew's achievements the reality appears to be that the two Manchester clubs and Spurs will take the top three positions, leaving Chelsea and Arsenal to fight over fourth spot. Only in the event of complete collapse from both will anyone else get a look-in, and though Chelsea and Arsenal look as if they may have some more collapsing to do, it will be a surprise if both manage to mess up the rest of the season badly enough to miss out.
That's not a very encouraging picture, is it? United, Chelsea and Arsenal have failed to scare Europe this season and have given little indication that things are going to be much better next time round. City might be all right, depending on how well things go for the rest of this season, but are short of Champions League experience and are beginning to be hampered by the financial fair play rules. Spurs could be just about the best bet, but must be wishing Carlo Ancelotti was still available for a seamless takeover should Redknapp say goodbye.
The bottom line is that it is hard to see Chelsea or Arsenal improving significantly in Europe next season. Both seem to be due a major shakeup. United also seem to be battling on rather than blazing any new trails of glory, and though it could be argued a major shakeup at Old Trafford is long overdue, the owners and long-serving manager seem content with the present conservative policy. United could easily improve on this season's performance in Europe – it is hard to see them doing any worse – but they have not progressed in recent years as much as other top sides in the Champions League. City and Spurs both have plenty of room for improvement, but plenty of scope for all manner of unexpected things to go wrong. While it would be great to predict that English clubs will be back with a bang in Europe next year, the reality is that it could be another whimper.
Source: Paul Wilson, The Guardian on 22 Feb 12
In case you haven't heard, should Arsenal and Chelsea fail to overcome their first-leg deficits against Italian opponents when the Champions League resumes next month, English football will not have a side in the last eight for the first time since its formation 1996. Sixteen years is a long time, especially when English clubs have reached the final on no fewer than eight occasions in that period, and even if the actual success rate (three European Cups) was slightly disappointing the rest of Europe seems totally delighted now that the Premier League is in danger of losing its superior smirk.
Never mind that Chelsea and Arsenal still have microscopically small chances of making progress. The rest of Europe has just seen Chelsea and Arsenal in action, and judgment need not wait until elimination becomes a mathematical certainty. By Champions League standards, indeed by the standards of previous English attempts on Europe's summit, these are two poor sides. One can only imagine a certain amount of confusion exists in continental Europe as to how Chelsea and Arsenal ended up as the last two English representatives. If the last two are that bad, does it follow that Manchester City and Manchester United are even worse?
Not necessarily. City in particular were both inexperienced and unlucky enough to find themselves in a highly competitive group, not to mention handicapped by recalcitrant substitutes. But City were never going to win the Champions League this year, even Roberto Mancini would tell you that. They never had the same amount of wind in their sails that Tottenham Hotspur had last season, and though they would have liked to make it out of their qualification group, they would inevitably have found the going tough in the latter stages at a time when all their concentration needs to be on their bid to secure a first domestic title in 44 years.
A fact much harder to face is that United were never going to win the Champions League this year either. Reaching two of the last three finals counts for nothing when you have been so thoroughly outplayed by the same team in each, and though all at Old Trafford would strenuously deny it, the possibility exists that confidence, perhaps at some subconscious level, was irreparably damaged by the two crushing Barcelona defeats. It is hard to think of other reasons why a team of United's experience and pedigree should come up short against the likes of Basel and Benfica, and a number of supporters are consoling themselves with the thought that as long as Barcelona are still at large there is little point in fighting all the way to the final anyway. That is an understandable reaction, though a somewhat flattering one. Barcelona are far from the only team in Europe who now look quite uncatchable to English sides. Real Madrid, Milan and Bayern Munich, if not a few others, all look capable of beating United at the moment, and by extension anyone else from the Premier League.
So English football, or at least the product produced by mostly foreign players and managers from the English Premier League, is not as strong as it used to be. The evidence is clear. We appear to be a footballing nation in decline, except that one year may not be representative of the overall situation. There was an English team in the final last season after all, and two more reached the last eight. The question now is how strong Premier League teams are going to be in the Champions League next year. Maybe Chelsea or Arsenal or even both will miss out, and on recent evidence that may be no bad thing. But who will replace them? Spurs are in prime position, though it is difficult to say who will be managing Spurs next season.
It will be a pity, from a club point of view, should Harry Redknapp accept the England position, because as Sir Alex Ferguson says, he has put together a very attractive team at White Hart Lane. Without the England distraction Spurs would ordinarily have been looking forward to using the experience gained last season and having a real go at the Champions League, a prospect that seems infinitely preferable to having Redknapp attempt to persuade Paul Scholes out of retirement for a World Cup qualifier in Moldova. It is up to Redknapp to decide what is the grander destiny, but anyone neutral in the matter would not take long to conclude that Spurs have a far greater capacity for attacking, exciting football than England, and there is no guarantee that the next manager will be able to maintain the club's momentum.
In terms of renewing the English challenge in Europe then, there is already a question mark over Spurs. There is a question over Liverpool too, because they may not be able to qualify. There is some doubt over whether Liverpool would cause many problems for the big names of Europe when they keep ceding points to the likes of Fulham, Norwich City and Swansea City, though the recent elimination of the two Manchester clubs from the two domestic cups gave a better indication of what they are capable of when the occasion arises. Liverpool have always shown great stickability in Europe – their 2005 triumph was not just a miracle in Istanbul, they were written off at almost every stage preceding the final – and few English clubs have ever proved more adept at the art of winning over two legs. Yet unless their league form improves they will have to wait another year, and anything can happen in that time period.
The only other breakthrough contenders, unless Martin O'Neill is about to whisk Sunderland all the way into the top four, are Newcastle United. Stranger things have happened, though not many, and with due respect to Alan Pardew's achievements the reality appears to be that the two Manchester clubs and Spurs will take the top three positions, leaving Chelsea and Arsenal to fight over fourth spot. Only in the event of complete collapse from both will anyone else get a look-in, and though Chelsea and Arsenal look as if they may have some more collapsing to do, it will be a surprise if both manage to mess up the rest of the season badly enough to miss out.
That's not a very encouraging picture, is it? United, Chelsea and Arsenal have failed to scare Europe this season and have given little indication that things are going to be much better next time round. City might be all right, depending on how well things go for the rest of this season, but are short of Champions League experience and are beginning to be hampered by the financial fair play rules. Spurs could be just about the best bet, but must be wishing Carlo Ancelotti was still available for a seamless takeover should Redknapp say goodbye.
The bottom line is that it is hard to see Chelsea or Arsenal improving significantly in Europe next season. Both seem to be due a major shakeup. United also seem to be battling on rather than blazing any new trails of glory, and though it could be argued a major shakeup at Old Trafford is long overdue, the owners and long-serving manager seem content with the present conservative policy. United could easily improve on this season's performance in Europe – it is hard to see them doing any worse – but they have not progressed in recent years as much as other top sides in the Champions League. City and Spurs both have plenty of room for improvement, but plenty of scope for all manner of unexpected things to go wrong. While it would be great to predict that English clubs will be back with a bang in Europe next year, the reality is that it could be another whimper.
Source: Paul Wilson, The Guardian on 22 Feb 12
No comments:
Post a Comment