Sunday, February 27, 2011

How Birmingham can unsettle Arsenal

Arsenal boss Arsene Wenger believes something has changed in his team this season.

"We have matured, certainly, because we can win a game when we are less creative and less fluent, with intelligence and calmness," he said after the 1-0 Premier League win over Stoke at the Emirates on Wednesday.

"One or two years ago when we were not on our top game we dropped points, but on Wednesday you could see the team realise, right, let's not make a mistake and I must give a lot of credit to my players for that."

Recent performances against Newcastle aside, there is growing evidence the Gunners are riding storms in certain games to emerge on the other side with the equanimity that Wenger talks about.

The Stoke victory was a good example and the last time the north Londoners faced Sunday's Carling Cup final opponents, Birmingham, they also had to come through a difficult spell.

New Year's Day at St Andrew's was a stern test for Arsenal with some fierce challenges dished out by the hosts, but the 3-0 win over Alex McLeish's side was achieved with a maturity to give fans an added belief.

That resilience will be tested again when the Gunners get their first taste of a Wembley showpiece since the 1998 FA Cup final, without their injured captain Cesc Fabregas or Theo Walcott.

Again it will be a game of perhaps different styles as figures show the two teams appear at different ends of the table when it comes to the percentage of long passes they play in the Premier League.

But if Wenger's side cannot be roughed up anymore where else might Birmingham be able to find a weakness in the Gunners' armoury?

Former Arsenal centre-back Martin Keown believes that Blues will still try to break up their opponent's rhythm by being quick to close down their midfield.

However, Keown argues that by sitting back, as Stoke did on Wednesday, Birmingham will be making a mistake.

"The answer is to have an attacking threat," the BBC football pundit says. "Personally I think you need to play a couple of strikers to really test Arsenal when you are in possession of the ball. The more you sit back, the more they are just going to attack you."

"Something they do seem to struggle with, I believe, is people making good runs from midfield, which is what Barcelona did to great effect but they just couldn't finish off their chances."

"Arsenal play a high line in defence and they don't pick off runners from deep but there are few teams prepared to be ambitious enough to play that game against them."

"People tend to sit in and take a rest once they gain possession but it's a case of attacking when you get the ball."

Given the amount of possession that Arsenal tend to have it is no wonder that players need to regain their composure before launching a counter attack.

Yet recent evidence suggests taking that approach does provide good results. Over the last two seasons, the Gunners are second-worst, behind Wigan, at conceding Premier League goals via counter attacks.

Another route to goal for Birmingham could feature the pinpoint deliveries of Sebastian Larsson and the 6ft 7in frame of striker Nikola Zigic, via set-pieces.

Serbian forward Zigic was on target when Arsenal beat the Blues earlier this season and it is clear that McLeish's team use him as an outlet.

"I would play Obafemi Martins and Cameron Jerome up front, especially at Wembley with the big open spaces that exist," Keown argues. "Also, I don't think Wembley is a set-piece pitch because it is too big. You cannot reach the penalty areas with effective balls from too far away."

"It's all about denying space and playing a pressure game and playing percentage balls into deeper areas. Then you can rely on free-kicks and corners to be effective."

"If I was a centre-half playing in this game it wouldn't necessarily bother me too much if Zigic was playing. But if you have got pace and power playing around you then you've got more of a problem. That's what Martins will bring because he is rapid."

"Lee Bowyer can make decent runs from midfield to join them and Craig Gardner has got an eye for goal too. Birmingham can play, certainly, but they may not have the strength of belief in themselves to do that."

As for Arsenal, Keown believes they can cope without the injured Walcott, who often provides their greatest source of width and was a menace at St Andrew's in January.

Whether the same goes for Fabregas is another matter, but Keown dispels the myth that Walcott is vastly different from his possible replacements.

Player touches from the game at St Andrew's show how Walcott and Samir Nasri, in particular, rarely hug the touchline.

"Arsenal have Andrey Arshavin who can play in a wide position very intelligently, and Nasri has done that to good effect too," Keown explains. "No player at Arsenal is told to stay in a wide position, they are only starting positions, and for me Walcott is a better player when he comes inside."

"You don't rely on crosses from Arsenal players; it's about linking up intelligently. Yes, Walcott's pace will be missed because he terrifies the opposition, but don't underestimate Arshavin and Tomas Rosicky, who may well come in instead."

The Carling Cup final will be Arsenal's seventh game in February but Keown says - if they are fully committed - they will be too strong for Birmingham.

And he thinks that if the north Londoners manage to claim their first piece of silverware since 2005 it will only underline their fortitude, which has been doubted by others for so long.

"I just think winning on Sunday will get people off their backs because if you're not winning things people consider you to be second best," Keown adds. "The players will consider themselves to be winners but it's that trophy that proves it to everybody else and that's what they need right now."

Source: Alistar Magowan, BBC Sport on 25 Feb 11

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